(Refer Jan 28, 2002 issue of OUTLOOK)
Outlook - C fore Opinion Poll

Uttar Pradesh
 
Who do you think should be the next chief minister ?

 Rajnath Singh  31.5%
Mulayam Singh  30.0%
Mayawati       23.0%

Do you think populist measures adopted by Rajnath Singh will benefit the BJP in the coming polls?

 Yes         63%
No          21%
Can’t say   16%

If a BJP voter, would you like the BJP entering into an electoral alliance with the BSP?

 No         68%
Yes        17
Can’t say  15%

Should India launch a full-fledged war with Pakistan over the terrorism issue?

 No         65.5%
Yes        30%
Can’t say  16.5

Do you approve of the BJP response to the attack on Parliament on December 13th last year?

 Yes        68%
No         12%
Can’t say  20%

Are you happy with the performance of your MLA?

 Yes        22%
No         66%
Can’t say  12%

Do you think the BJP’s response to the Parliament attack should have been stronger?

 Yes        52.5%
No         18.5%
Can’t say  29%

In case of a war between India and Pakistan, who will benefit more in the coming elections?

 BJP          84.5%
Can’t say    13.5%
Others:      2%

Which party/ alliance is in a better position to tackle the issues facing Uttar Pradesh today?

 BJP                28%
SP                 25.5%
BSP                18%
Cong               8.5%
Others/Can’t say   20%

Voter Loyalty Matrix For BJP

Loyal: Happy with govt. performance and will vote for BJP   10%
Trapped: Not satisfied with government but will still vote for BJP 12%
Accessible: Not exactly happy with the govt & not yet decided whom to vote for 22.5%
High Risk: Not happy with the performance of the government and will not vote for BJP 55.5%

Which party did you vote for in the Lok Sabha elections in 1999?

BJP     36.0%
SP      27%
BSP     19%
Cong    10%
Others  8%

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Punjab
 
Who do you think should be the next chief minister?

Amarinder Singh  32.5%
P.S. Badal       30.0%         
Kanshi Ram       4.0%
Rest: Others

Do you approve of the BJP response to the attack on Parliament on December 13 last year?

Yes        65.0%
No         21.5%
Can’t say  13.5%

Should India launch a full-fledged war with Pakistan over the terrorism issue?

No        59.5%
Yes       31%
Can’t say 9.5%

Do you think the BJP’s response to the Parliament attack should have been stronger?

Yes        48.5%
No         25%
Can’t say  26.5%

Which party/alliance is in a better position to tackle the issues facing Punjab today?

Cong    35%
BJP     10%
SAD     17%
BSP     4%
Others  34%

Which party did you vote for in last Lok Sabha elections in 1999?

Cong       30%
SAD        22%
BJP        8%
BSP        6%
Can’t say  22%

Voter Loyality Matrix For SAD
Loyal: Happy with government performance, will vote SAD    10%
High Risk: Not happy with the performance of the government and will not vote for SAD  54%
Accessible: Not happy with government and have not decided whom to vote for    14%
Trapped: Not satisfied with government but will still vote for SAD  22%
Seat Projection (2002) Total seats: 117

Congress +                  70-75
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)+  30-35
Others                      5-10

Vote share
  SAD+BJP Cong+CPI Others
Seats won in 1997 Assembly Elections 93 16 8
Vote share in 1997 elections (per cent) 46 29 25
Expected vote share in 2002 (per cent) 37 40 23
Swing in 2002 over 1997 elections -9 +11 -2
 
 


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